Here’s How Oil Could Hit $200+


<p>Today’s stock market presents a great dilemma for investors.</p>



<p>With valuations inflated to near all-time highs, the broader U.S. stock market (i.e. S&amp;P 500) offers low or negative future returns:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/SoacIzvY-Z41etqA3X9gGWpb06OVQNdMuOH8rcfaxzIrC2He-fSTGIY01uAsOH8cPNVeXqmaCfgG_z0OCPm_6GSTIJ-45xwcAE8i0reiaUBN-0AOYXtw4sVwoGVPFQT74wgwALqL" alt="Chart, scatter chart

Description automatically generated"/></figure>



<p>Meanwhile, with inflation running at 40-year highs, holding cash guarantees a loss in purchasing power. The energy sector offers a lone bright spot of value, plus inflation-protection, in an otherwise overvalued and dangerous stock market.</p>



<p>Today, I’ll make the case for how oil could hit $100.</p>



<p>Let’s start by reviewing the inventory side of the equation.</p>



<p><strong>Oil Inventories: From Glut to Potential Shortage</strong></p>



<p>The global oil glut created in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak has officially been erased. Today, global crude stocks sit near the bottom of their historical range. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA)&nbsp;<a href="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php">projects</a>&nbsp;global inventories will remain depressed throughout 2022:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/BvUaKfvKtbu2ms_ZD6WaA7cTKlPHNo6WbTBKDoV2ZadmGS7sA6edYvOwtBgtDPFpeIcUclp-eZFO2ptz5eBCbynt9sVDBwdG4samVBxsYNn61ZzG_r1lVJzr5nlTmgRNVEExD2bO" alt="Chart, line chart

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<p>This depleted storage situation increases the likelihood of a potential oil shortage, and price spike, in the event of a meaningful supply disruption anywhere around the globe.</p>



<p>It’s also important to note that the EIA’s forecast in the chart above was made in early December, when the EIA assumed a potential demand hit from the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus, noting:</p>



<p><em>The potential effects of the spread of this (Omicron) variant are uncertain, which introduces downside risks to the global oil consumption forecast.</em></p>



<p>With the benefit of an extra month of new data, we now know that the Omicron has failed to make a major dent in global oil demand. Meanwhile, there’s a potential upside case from Omicron.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="omicron-could-mark-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-covid-19-economic-restrictions"><strong>Omicron Could Mark the Beginning of the End of COVID-19 Economic Restrictions</strong></h2>



<p>Historically, it’s not uncommon for viral pandemics to end from the dominance of a milder form of the virus. Specifically, you need a variant with greater transmissibility, but lower-symptom severity. Preliminary evidence indicates that Omicron could fit this bill.</p>



<p>First, we know that the Omicron variant is highly transmissible and has become the dominant strain in many regions,<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-01-04/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day-ky0qn5i5">&nbsp;including over 95% of all U.S. COVID-19 cases</a>. Meanwhile, without downplaying the severity to the virus, it appears that Omicron is a milder form of the COVID-19 virus. We can see this in the fact that COVID case counts have exploded to new record highs in places like the U.S., while hospitalization and fatality rates remain well below the highs.</p>



<p>From my understanding, the growing dominance of a milder viral strain is exactly how the Spanish Flu burned itself out. If Omicron produces such an outcome, that’s obviously a massive upside surprise for crude oil demand in 2022.</p>



<p>Even without this outcome, the data shows that world is increasingly learning to live with COVID-19. Economic and travel patterns are gradually returning to normal around the globe, including a robust recovery in jet travel &#8211; the key lagging sector throughout the pandemic. That’s why current estimates from major forecasting agencies, including the EIA, project new record highs in global crude demand in 2022.</p>



<p>Meanwhile, things look even more bullish on the supply side of the equation.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="global-oil-supply-most-bullish-outlook-in-over-a-decade"><strong>Global Oil Supply: Most Bullish Outlook in Over a Decade</strong></h2>



<p>The plain reality is that oil production requires capital. And capital investment into fossil fuel development has been running at dangerously low for two years running:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/4xIV1YqyA8ZzDSBRbb2AXyZlJwrrhf2H-El8yNha2TcLgNFvGCDZhKMzfEoHEdjW8gjcSy652ACQra9RIfoE1Wy1vv1ft6ZKyVa99F1_9CpDvgYBOmsuNb30kGRSiGAwdUx-ODF4" alt="Chart, bar chart

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<p>After more than a decade of excess oil supply, the world has grown accustomed to the risk of oversupply in the oil market. However, with oil investment falling to the lowest levels of the last decade, capital starvation is setting the stage for potential supply shocks as the key tail-risk going forward.</p>



<p>We can see clear evidence of capital impairment across the board, including in the U.S. shale patch. Despite oil reaching as high as $85 per barrel in 2021, U.S. production remains 1.5 million barrels per day below pre-COVID highs. This is a 180-degree inversion from the shale boom era, when $60 oil was enough to incentivize new record highs in U.S. production.</p>



<p>All signs indicate further shale capital restraint into 2022, based on current rig count trends and capex plans from the major American E&amp;Ps.</p>



<p>Of course, the story of shale capital impairment has been well covered. The lesser talked about phenomenon is a similar investment pullback among key OPEC+ producers, like Saudi Arabia. The chart below shows the Saudi rig count sitting at the lowest levels in more than 13 years:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/uu2tQeKVQvBn9JuKqnxelPj6NJtg8xHkOKKm7JBMlC3952FlxzmCxCmk55njI1sHO-iMmPKD7yWNcRFDZSPLn-76reBJO9mu_56gWyDe22QYw6IrK7A-p7AaVhvr5Md73yv9UKDf" alt="Chart, bar chart

Description automatically generated"/></figure>



<p>Meanwhile, there’s growing chatter that Russia &#8211; the world’s 3rd largest oil producer &#8211; might also be running up against its production limit, as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-02/russia-december-oil-output-flat-signaling-lack-of-capacity">Bloomberg recently reported:</a></p>



<p><em>Russia failed to boost oil output last month despite a generous ramp-up quota in its OPEC+ agreement, indicating the country has deployed all of its current available production capacity.</em></p>



<p>So even as OPEC+ remains on the output hiking path, including the recent announcement of a 400,000 barrel/day increase beginning in February, the big question remains: how much global spare capacity exists to meet record highs in demand this year and beyond?</p>



<p>Throw in the potential for a geopolitical disruption in a major producing region, like the&nbsp;<a href="https://news.yahoo.com/kazakhstan-says-164-killed-week-141722474.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall">current turmoil in Kazakhstan</a>, and $100 oil could be just the beginning of the next leg higher in prices.</p>
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Here’s How Oil Could Hit $100


<p>A big part of investment success requires being in the right place at the right time.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Today, the prospects for direct oil, gas and Bitcoin investing have never looked better. </p>



<p>Long-time followers will recall that we’ve been pounding the table on today’s opportunity for direct oil and gas investors. The basic story here hasn&#8217;t changed, it&#8217;s just grown more compelling. </p>



<p>In a normal commodity market, high prices provide a powerful signal for investors: allocate more capital. But in today’s market, that signaling mechanism is broken.&nbsp;For the first time ever, high energy prices have been met with capital scarcity, creating the best buyer’s market of our lifetime.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Despite oil trading at multi-year highs, capital remains stubbornly sidelined in today’s market. Consider the difference in rig counts between today versus the prior peak in prices, back in October of 2018 at $75 oil:</p>



<p class="has-text-align-center"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="624" height="380" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/i8FD7GSzF2JHDVJmqt4BZticFjWT6fwbJDLLYOXg65GiFjtAdA7A-YTZcSW3eq4Maq6He6PmrxkY7CtcdghfcLW8s-dq0Ga_q7Y7CVpPic4evToDeHwZRkHhXciOW_Dvve-YuHfL=s1600"></p>



<p>The unwillingness of operators to deploy rigs becomes even more bullish when you consider the depleting inventory of “drilled but uncompleted” wells (DUCs). As the name implies, DUCs are wells where the majority of capital has been spent drilling, but the well has not been hydraulically stimulated (“completed”) to maximize production yet. DUCs reflect oil supply that can quickly be brought online through completion, but without deploying new drilling rigs.</p>



<p>During the shale boom years, excess cheap capital flowing into the shale patch funded a record accumulation of DUC inventories. But in today’s capital starved market, drillers are now harvesting this inventory. The shale DUC count is now at the lowest level in years:</p>



<p class="has-text-align-center"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="624" height="365" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/4w1Q7rmftDWqVeX2eokQz30ij3E8QBsyQXZ7OlmDeMtnDnIVE8Um09BSybn6JtlEYxDuMWe9DWbk6qPHUelxuGRzzz8QYVuVRcRRA7gYdv9VDJVSnBS577-uUUU2ca-tmWeqF-Rg=s1600"></p>



<p>Today&#8217;s depleted DUC count means less future oil supply, without a major increase in drilling rigs.&nbsp;</p>



<p>So, even as the consensus calls for new record highs in crude oil consumption in 2022, all signs indicate U.S. production likely remains below the pre-COVID peak for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the major European oil companies are facing similar capital constraints, all while OPEC is maintaining discipline in keeping supply off the market.  </p>



<p>This is a recipe for one thing: higher prices. </p>



<p>At least that&#8217;s the bet Wall Street is making. The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/crazy-bets-on-200-oil-invade-the-options-market-11634463002">Wall Street Journal recently reported</a> on the flood of options trades betting on $100 oil, captured in the graphic below: </p>



<p class="has-text-align-center"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/UAqNDL-W0J9z0QXVTVIwMLa_34nwbhBbm1lVL21tWf4salUuhpD4wJmrxXKuwRHTrSAPNEqXe9BBQHNLxp1Y3ZZ9VTPh8rD9fdNZbC4tzhLbywSnkz3tpT1fp0dp5StQPJD7wumP=s1600" width="418" height="523"></p>



<p>But $100 could be just the beginning, if traders in the options pit are right. The same Journal article noted a recent spike in bets calling for $200 oil by the end of 2022.</p>



<p>Does Wall Street know something we don’t?&nbsp;</p>



<p>But it’s not just oil prices going through the roof&#8230;&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>Propane Apocalypse</strong></p>



<p>Similar supply/demand dynamics have driven a global shortage of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). NGLs include products like ethane, propane and butane &#8211; key feedstocks for chemical processing, and fuel sources for heat during the winter.&nbsp;</p>



<p>You may have seen the headlines about $6 natural gas and a potential winter supply crunch. Less fanfare has been made about an already-dire supply situation in the propane market. The chart below shows U.S. propane inventories falling to their lowest seasonal level of the last six years, ahead of the key winter heating season: </p>



<p class="has-text-align-center"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="500" height="243" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/CK-MhYuXpw3ZxxkVxX1KQQboZmGMnPqyN95ZNxezOGpONWCM_Wfv8TRz9a-k0g6AHGQHfgeAr69i_pnYnHFB-CySPb-C1bXez235Gf5x7ptMgmNqy6tPBc175nB2OhzU5zSOkVmp=s1600"></p>



<p>The combination of depleted inventories, stalled production growth, and the potential for a cold winter led one UBS analyst to warn of a potential <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ihs-market-warns-armageddon-us-propane-market">“Armageddon” scenario in the propane market</a>. While that may prove hyperbolic, Mr. Market is telegraphing a potential supply crunch by sending propane prices towards their highest levels in eight years.&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>The Opportunity of a Lifetime</strong></p>



<p>Put it all together, and we believe today’s energy market offers the opportunity of a lifetime for investors. With large scale capital allocators refusing to put money to work, even at today’s prices, <strong><em>we’re seeing the best buyer’s market ever for deal-making.</em>&nbsp;</strong></p>



<p>This includes proven reserves projects with IRRs exceeding 20% for wells already on-production, and proven development projects with IRRs exceeding 30%.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Given today’s stretched stock market valuations, and near record low bond yields, this type of return/risk proposition is almost unheard of. The only asset offering greater returns than energy in today’s market is Bitcoin:&nbsp;</p>



<p class="has-text-align-center"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="422" height="486" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-O8wWNP6XOnyGamTfGiZNseiCG21PjRPZGeZYKyjFQo4R69DlC3JLRceT7DP6SP3MTiqNmCz9z0XSSBxp_O4A3NcmjzE4gSmxZ7smxob601k3QEBTBvz5pudwosHOQ6aNc6kW1Fp=s1600"></p>



<p>Thanks to the new Bitcoin mining opportunities we’ve identified, Yield Fund I investors can now tap into each of these top performing asset classes.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Just like oil and gas, the prospects for Bitcoin investors have never looked brighter.&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>Bitcoin Goes Mainstream&nbsp;</strong></p>



<p>Hardly a week goes by without a major new catalyst moving Bitcoin towards mainstream adoption. This week, history was made with the launch of the first-ever Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF). Now, both institutional and retail investors can buy Bitcoin through a regular brokerage account.&nbsp;</p>



<p>With millions of new investors able to invest in Bitcoin with the click of a button, it’s no surprise why Bitcoin reached new record highs above $67,000 per coin this week. At current prices, the economics of our proposed Bitcoin mines look even better than the lucrative oil and gas deals available in today’s market.&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>Cut Your Tax Bill with Oil and Gas&#8230;AND Bitcoin Mines!</strong></p>



<p>Looking beyond the returns available, we know a big reason why many investors chose direct oil and gas investing is to reduce their taxable income. Specifically, the intangible drilling cost deductions, that allows for the opportunity to deduct up to 100% of your investment in year one &#8211; providing immediate, upfront tax benefits.</p>



<p>After consulting with tax professionals in recent weeks, we’ve learned that our Bitcoin mine will provide investors with a similar bonus depreciation tax benefit. Timing is everything here. That’s why we’re making an aggressive push to raise capital and put it to work before year-end. This will allow investors the maximum tax benefit for the 2021 tax year.&nbsp;</p>



<p>If you’d like to learn more, <a href="https://meetings.hubspot.com/elizabeth300/energyfunders-investor-meeting" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">click here</a> to schedule a time with someone on our team to learn how you can invest in our Yield Fund I.</p>
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The Golden Age of Oil, Gas and Bitcoin Investing 


<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://i0.wp.com/hs-2935563.f.hubspotemail.net/hub/2935563/hubfs/Email%20Graphics%20-%20Bitcoin%20Basic.jpg?w=750&#038;ssl=1" alt="Email Graphics - Bitcoin Basic" data-recalc-dims="1"/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>What if you could own the best performing asset class of the last decade, at a substantial discount to current prices? <br><br>I’m talking about Bitcoin. Specifically, mining Bitcoin with cost-advantaged, clean-burning natural gas. Over the last few months, I (Laura) have been hard at work putting together this opportunity for Yield Fund I investors. The goal: invest in a wellsite mining project that will produce Bitcoins for approximately $30,000 per coin.   <br><br>After months of planning, the project is now coming together. Just last week, we officially placed the first order for mining equipment, and started designing the onsite layout. Over the next several months, we hope to have all the pieces in place to begin churning out Bitcoins for $30,000 per coin.  <br><br>(Note: this $30,000 projected Bitcoin cost reflects the estimated all-in costs for the life of the project. This estimate is subject to change at any time. <a href="https://meetings.hubspot.com/elizabeth300/energyfunders-investor-meeting" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Click here</a> to speak with someone on our team regarding the detailed economic projections.)   <br><br>So what does this mean for Yield Fund I investors? Our current estimates suggest that this Bitcoin mining project could achieve IRRs in the triple-digit range. <br><br>After speaking with many current and potential investors in recent weeks, we know many Bitcoin enthusiasts are excited about this project. But today, I&#8217;d like to provide some basic background information for those new to Bitcoin.  Let’s start from square one: why Bitcoin, and more importantly, why now?   <br><strong><br>An Unprecedented Economic Environment</strong><br>As you know, the COVID-19 outbreak delivered a crushing blow to the economy. But only 18 months later, we’re now living through a full blown economic boom. Record retail sales, record corporate earnings and record high asset prices across stocks, real estate and commodities. <br><br>What happened? The largest monetary and fiscal expansion of all time.  <br><br>Specifically, the Federal Reserve expanded the U.S. M2 money supply by over 30%, from $15.5 trillion in March of 2020 to $20.6 trillion today. That means roughly one-third of U.S. base money supply was created in the last 18 months alone.  <br><br>Meanwhile, the largest fiscal stimulus package of all time pushed the federal deficit to over $3 trillion last year. That’s more than twice the deficit spending deployed to fight the previous recession in 2009, which itself was unprecedented at the time.   <br><br>Clearly, these efforts helped jumpstart economic growth. But here’s where things get tricky… <br><br><strong>The Bill Comes Due</strong><br>We’ve all been taught that there’s no such thing as a free lunch in life, and economics is no different. After all, why should anyone work or pay taxes if the government can simply borrow and print our way to prosperity? One of the potential costs of record deficit spending and money creation is rising prices, and that bill is now coming due.   <br><br>U.S. consumer prices are currently increasing at over 5% per year &#8211; the fastest rate in over a decade. And current evidence suggests more pain for the consumer is in store. That&#8217;s because producer prices, the key cost input feeding into consumer prices, are increasing at over 10% per year &#8211; the fastest pace in over 40 years: </td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://i0.wp.com/hs-2935563.f.hubspotemail.net/hub/2935563/hubfs/FED%20PPI.png?w=750&#038;ssl=1" alt="FED PPI" data-recalc-dims="1"/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td></td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Meanwhile, policymakers claim that today’s inflation is “transitory”. But the chart below shows that economist expectations for consumer prices have only moved higher with each passing month:</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://i0.wp.com/hs-2935563.f.hubspotemail.net/hub/2935563/hubfs/bloomberg%20inflation.png?w=750&#038;ssl=1" alt="bloomberg inflation" data-recalc-dims="1"/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td></td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Even if today’s inflation does turn out to be “transitory”, that&#8217;s little consolation for consumers. There&#8217;s a reason inflation is known as the “silent thief” &#8211; by making your money less valuable, it&#8217;s no different than a wealth confiscation in practice. If your bank confiscated 10% of the money in your account, would you not worry simply because it was a one-time event?&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br><strong>Bitcoin Solves This</strong><br>Bitcoin is a decentralized, digital monetary network that offers a superior currency alternative. Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoin is controlled by software &#8211; not central bankers and governments. The Bitcoin protocol ensures that only 21 million coins will ever be created, which means no more silent theft through endless inflation.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>Each transaction is digitally encrypted onto a decentralized network, run by computers all around the world. Some have called it the “internet of money”, because you can seamlessly transact with anyone around the world at the click of a button. No intermediaries or central authorities getting in the way &#8211; it’s the people’s money.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>Beyond offering inflation protection, the Bitcoin network was designed to be super secure and self-regulating. That&#8217;s where Bitcoin mining comes in. Here’s how it works…&nbsp;<br><br>The self-regulating Bitcoin network is maintained through a network of thousands of “nodes”. At each node, high-powered computers &#8211; known as miners &#8211; keep track of every Bitcoin transaction. These miners compile real-time Bitcoin transactions into data blocks. When a given data block fills up, the miner adds it to the pre-existing block series. These linked blocks form a chain, known as the “blockchain”. So, the blockchain is simply a continuously-updated public ledger, which contains every single Bitcoin transaction of all time.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>The Bitcoin protocol uses several mechanisms to ensure security and integrity of the blockchain. This includes the fact that 50% of the network nodes must approve each data block before adding it onto the blockchain. This prevents a bad actor from creating false transactions in real-time. Meanwhile, rewriting blockchain history is even more difficult, as explained in the following graphic:</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://i0.wp.com/hs-2935563.f.hubspotemail.net/hub/2935563/hubfs/bitcoin%20cheat.png?w=750&#038;ssl=1" alt="bitcoin cheat" data-recalc-dims="1"/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td></td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>In exchange for lending their computing power to the Bitcoin network, miners get rewarded with a certain amount of Bitcoin per each data block they create. The number falls over time, by design, as the total number of Bitcoins approaches 21 million. Currently, miners receive just over 6 Bitcoins for each data block.  <br><br>Now, here’s where we get back to why it all matters for Yield Fund I investors&#8230; <br><br><strong>How To Buy Bitcoin at $30,000 Today</strong><br>Sure, you could bet on the future of digital currencies by simply buying Bitcoin. But why pay $42,000 per coin, when you could instead pay $30,000? That’s the opportunity we see today, thanks to the rise of mobile Bitcoin mining units. Let me explain&#8230; <br><br>You see, Bitcoin mining can be thought of as simply converting electricity into digital currency. So electricity becomes one of the biggest variables driving the mining economics. Over the last few months, we’ve put together a plan for converting wellhead natural gas into electrical power, via gas-fired commercial generators located at the wellsite. The generators then power the mobile Bitcoin mining units, also located onsite near the wellhead.  <br><br>We believe the economics speak for themselves. For roughly $2 million in upfront capital cost, we believe we can produce roughly 6 Bitcoins per month initially for an operating cost of just over $60,000.  The end result &#8211; a payback period in less than one year, and a project IRR exceeding 100%.  <br><br>(Note: these project economics are estimates, and subject to change at any time. <a href="https://meetings.hubspot.com/elizabeth300/energyfunders-investor-meeting" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Click here</a> to speak with someone on our team regarding the detailed economic projections.)   <br><br>We’re excited to be offering this opportunity to Yield Fund I investors today, and look forward to updating you on the progress as we start receiving equipment at the mining site. This is a truly unique opportunity, and I am pleased to be offering the chance to democratize Bitcoin mining.  </td></tr></tbody></table></figure>
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How to Buy Bitcoin for $30,000


<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2FBull-Run.4b0f611ff868bd5201417264316ec673.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



<p>A new paradigm has gripped the global energy markets… and it’s creating the most attractive investment opportunity of a generation.&nbsp;</p>



<p>In the past, capital chased economic opportunity in the energy markets. We see this reflected in the historical relationship between prices and rig counts. As you would expect, periods of high oil prices would draw capital into the market, sending rig counts higher. Inevitably, the excess capital would create excess supply, pushing prices and rig counts back down. Thus oil normally follows the same boom/bust cycle seen across most other commodities.&nbsp;</p>



<p>But 2021 ain’t your normal oil market.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The previous relationship between oil prices and rig deployments has officially broken down:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2FRig-Count.dbae94180e7f9906acb53d16de08da31.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



<p>Looking at today’s rig count, you’d think oil was trading at 2016 or 2020 levels. Instead, despite the oil and gas trading a multi-year highs, capital remains stubbornly sidelined in the current market. In other words…</p>



<p><em>Capital allocators now avoid oil and gas at all costs, regardless of the returns available.</em></p>



<p>In today’s article, I’ll explain what’s driving this seemingly irrational behavior, and why it’s creating the best investment opportunity we’ve seen in over a decade.&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>Shale Shocked: Investors Recovering from a Decade of Capital Destruction</strong></p>



<p>The capital exodus from energy markets makes sense in the context of recent history. The shale revolution invited record volumes of capital into oil and gas development over the last decade. This excess capital forced up land, lease and drilling costs, and then ultimately oversupplied the market. The one-two punch of rising input costs and depressed energy prices generated hundreds of billions in capital impairment.&nbsp;</p>



<p>According to&nbsp;<a href="https://hi.t.hubspotemail.net/e2t/tc/VWhDHk75pLKyW2_9zqM4VTPxFW1CR2894vtrW7N1RGLZL5nxG7V3Zsc37CgF3MW6B4p7n2x1nb6VCSJxQ1RLKqkW66Rv8v15N_CjW8PGgZ76SNZ5jW796VyX2RY1p6MB_tQyv0jhrW146P6B3vp5XYW4zR1_G656PLTW3Lsgxb6NjBn9W1xX6d41CR3FsW5fxNv5402LYDW2_F-dF5t_n0JN4G-921-cVHNW5b50x-6tTDXWW3P4dGc1l2cnFN2Z42dPWRjqfW4XRc052z-fYpW8SnSbj1Qv0WTW8CFZXJ3FV2gsN4jxyry3fFtfN4pr6tGl3D1zW5srYzJ55vkdqW4j8PRy2lXtFRW4qnMDp195SGxW51SXpn4kjkH7W1n7jkG30t4VzW35f7nV2q1DnWW4QrgS-456C7YW3QVTvk9bn_gcW2VYXyZ8gv-cbW2ZGXhS5ln7fMVPxQxP4Bt4Dd3g_w1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bloomberg</a>, the median internal rate of return (IRR) for private equity energy funds that started investing in 2010 is -5.6% through March 2021. Public markets haven’t fared much better. The following chart of public E&amp;P companies versus the S&amp;P 500 paints the picture of a painful lost decade for energy investors:&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2FBull-Run-1.4b0f611ff868bd5201417264316ec673.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img alt=""/></figure>



<p>So despite a historic bull market where virtually every asset class enjoyed record returns, energy investors have generally lost money since 2010. And we’re not just talking garden variety underperformance – this lost decade included two crushing price collapses along the way, in 2016 and 2020.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The 2016 energy crash delivered a particularly painful lesson. Many tried playing the contrarian game, with tens of billions of dollars flooding into the shale patch hoping to catch a cyclical rebound. But ultimately, too many contrarians acting together turned this into a consensus play. Within 18 months of the 2016 price bottom, a flood of new drilling activity sent U.S. production surging to new record highs. This unprecedented new production growth kept prices capped at around $60, while input costs soared, killing margins and cash flow across the board.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Then of course, we all know what happened in 2020…&nbsp;</p>



<p>The Coronavirus delivered a crushing final blow to energy investors, only four years after the previous price crash. Thus, in the wake of two back-to-back oil busts and a decade of negative returns, “shale-shocked” investors are unwilling to throw good money after bad. Meanwhile, countless E&amp;P companies themselves are pulling back from investing in new production growth. That’s because many took on excess leverage during the boom years, and must now divert cash flow towards repairing bloated balance sheets.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>



<p>But these financial scars only tell part of the story driving today’s capital retreat from oil and gas development. The rest of the story relates to the rise of environmental-social-governance (ESG) investment mandates.&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>ESG Forces Fossil Fuel Exodus</strong></p>



<p>ESG investment mandates have forced a wide scale retreat away from fossil fuel development, regardless of the returns available from the industry. Kelly Deponte, a director for a private equity fund, recently explained in a&nbsp;<a href="https://hi.t.hubspotemail.net/e2t/tc/VWhDHk75pLKyW2_9zqM4VTPxFW1CR2894vtrW7N1RGLZL5nxG7V3Zsc37CgN76W2lQfgY49QSC4W3Wb5Qc6JwSQCW40LFDg59cD9LVn_-vK2MGTS2W8qKrnw8nVTFGW2V-LK041Ft06W6__c4219Tr7YN8rZpS9J_5t0W1c3l153f45htW2RQh213MtHHlN7Zyls26dJD_W5YJp_C3Fn7sbW7JV51l4TPTQGVB52Zv2dnmrtW92PqHG1pr0wPW2yj9tl11P8FzW2QNTMq70x6xVW7LZdBY7vGzQ2W7vHsvB84QszZW4_pmR684Yp41W7MWYr317lZybW81vTrQ1-rxX6W3zmnl91vyFNGW8Y9WZk17nKfCW1QcJLX3mc90rW4G8p1h4R_rBkW82Gccl7jhJwqW4DWGZ62B-88vVYHbdn6p_9zPV_YJ4Q8nd7d9W2lkGGR4X45wgN6lyh3zxmQPP3dCG1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bloomberg article</a>&nbsp;that private equity and pension funds are “moving away from investing in oil and gas no matter the returns in pursuit of their carbon neutral goals.”&nbsp;</p>



<p>This includes major pension funds, like the New York State Common Retirement Fund – America’s third largest public pension – which now invests capital with a “net zero” emissions target mandate. Other major capital allocators shifting away from fossil fuel development include behemoths like the&nbsp;California Public Employees’ Retirement System&nbsp;(CalPERS) and Blackstone – one of the world’s largest private equity firms.&nbsp;</p>



<p>These moves go beyond just generating headlines and talking points – it’s translating into a major shift in fund flows. The chart below shows how renewables now attract roughly 80 cents of every dollar going into energy investments, drawing vast sums of capital away from conventional fossil fuel funding:&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2Fgreen-pic.58c55db729f8ce5c9fb1776c00f1c797.png&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img alt=""/></figure>



<p>Meanwhile, it’s just not capital allocators throwing in the towel on fossil fuels. Even the leading oil and gas companies themselves are being forced away from investments into hydrocarbon development. This includes the oil supermajors, like Chevron and Exxon – which have each come under fire from activist board members to reduce their emissions footprint. Over in Europe, the supermajors are under even greater pressure from both environmental groups and the legal system. Royal Dutch Shell recently became the first company in history ordered by a court to cut its emissions.&nbsp;</p>



<p>But here’s where the plot gets really interesting…</p>



<p>While the ESG movement has successfully waged a campaign to cut back on hydrocarbon supply – by attacking the investment side of the equation – they’ve yet to make any meaningful impact on the demand side of the equation.&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>“Peak Oil Demand” Nowhere in Sight</strong></p>



<p>If we rewind the clock back to this time last year, the growing consensus narrative was calling for the “end of oil” as we know it. The headline below is one among countless examples:&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2Fwords.756ce2c351e2f0c1e66f84e3ee1e58be.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img alt=""/></figure>



<p>The “peak oil demand” theory gained a lot of momentum last year based on the idea that COVID-19 would permanently change our way of life. One of the popular theories said that work from home would create a structural loss in gasoline demand from commuters. Fast forward to July 2021, and the American driver recently racked up a new all-time&nbsp;<a href="https://hi.t.hubspotemail.net/e2t/tc/VWhDHk75pLKyW2_9zqM4VTPxFW1CR2894vtrW7N1RGL_Q3p_b1V1-WJV7CgPwqW8mNxNK4FwCxDW2XlLgd8tGs30W5Zdpjt72-lq2W3hkYVt7wMT1KW2ncK2r8Wq5kRW4Lgtr87__d_-W3v2z9n2n-RDLW40NT632mgdYWW4jNjHB4zbpCqN7wFNznJx4GNW8TSf-K4ZW2hxVVR04C5mpCHgTbzZy36gzFwW3CWqS817yGlvVQ5sWP1rlvFVW4zXb_p1XXYnVW3RYnms3rR0HGVHNtv56Y2pj4W5hhvsb7scvHsVWkPpj18Y9pdN6VJ2kJ8k7pXN3qn70Z645PsW3BMFDL112M9_W2C4zg-5g636LVynMtv5M6-6vW1Mkczk9gTLJhW3NMQg-2Whm9NW8R9GN26FQrTVW75M3zS4QTQjKW19vNxF7_Gqmx3gbr1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">record high in gasoline consumption</a>&nbsp;– using over 10 million barrels per day of gasoline over the July 4th weekend.</p>



<p>Meanwhile, countries like India and China show no signs of slowing their fossil fuel demand anytime soon. After all, hydrocarbons still reflect the cheapest energy source on the planet, and emerging economies need all the cheap fuel they can get.</p>



<p>The bottom line: the end of oil demand remains nowhere in sight. Instead, we’re looking at new record highs looming on the horizon. That’s not my forecast – that comes from U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), which recently projected a full post-COVID recovery to new record highs in global oil demand next year:&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2Frecord-oil-consumption.0bdcea6577c64a3636a6f31ecde003ef.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img alt=""/></figure>



<p><strong>The Opportunity Beyond the Hype&nbsp;</strong></p>



<p>Thanks to a combination of poor historical returns and ESG-related mandates, the supply side of the oil and gas equation will likely remain impaired for years to come. Meanwhile, most analysts agree that demand will rebound towards new all-time highs in 2022 and beyond.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Thus, the stage is set for a structural imbalance between impaired supply and record demand. Not only will today’s capital retreat keep oil and gas prices elevated, but this will also help keep input costs in check, enabling the best industry margins since the dawn of the shale revolution.&nbsp;</p>



<p>We’re already seeing this new paradigm of profitability emerge in the data. The chart below shows that U.S. shale companies are now generating more free cash flow than at any time in their history:&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2Ffree-cash-flow-1.ea690f83b2be2a43c4057af437f14c7f.png&amp;w=1920&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img alt=""/></figure>



<p>The bottom line: for those willing to choose facts and numbers over headline hype, we’re looking at a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity in today’s energy market.&nbsp;</p>



<p>We believe the EnergyFunders Yield Fund I provides an excellent vehicle for capitalizing on this unique opportunity. The Fund is available for investment today, and will remain open as long as capacity exists. </p>
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The Generational Opportunity from Today’s New Energy Paradigm

Insights

Investing 101

Tax Benefits


<p>Top Three Tax Deductions for Oil and Gas Investments</p>



<p>The oil and gas industry enjoys some of the most lucrative benefits available in the U.S. tax code. Starting in 1986, the Federal Government introduced unique tax deductions for investors who directly fund oil and gas wells. Thanks to a new law in place from 2018 &#8211; 2023, you can now deduct up to 100% of the well cost in year one of the investment. </p>



<p>For more than three decades, wealthy Americans have used these deductions to reduce their taxable income. Instead of sending a check to Uncle Sam, they’ve put that money towards drilling oil and gas wells. The tax code also offers the opportunity to protect the future income from those wells. The end result: a lower tax bill today, and the potential for years of tax-advantaged income streams in the future.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Here are the top three ways you can take advantage of these opportunities.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-intangible-drilling-costs-tax-deduction">INTANGIBLE DRILLING COSTS TAX DEDUCTION</h3>



<p>The non-recoverable expenses of an oil and gas well are known as “intangible drilling costs” (IDCs). These include things that you can’t resell later including fuel, drilling fluids, and wages. IDCs typically make up roughly 65 – 80% of the well cost, and you can deduct 100% of IDCs in year one of the project.&nbsp;</p>



<p>For example, if you make a $100,000 investment into a well with 75% IDCs, you could earn up to a $75,000 deduction against your income tax bill. You also get a little leeway with the timing. IDC deductions become available in the year the money gets invested, even if the well does not start drilling until March 31 of the following year. (See Section 263 of the tax code.)</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tangible-drilling-costs-deduction">TANGIBLE DRILLING COSTS DEDUCTION</h3>



<p>Tangible drilling costs (TDCs) refer to the well costs that you can potentially recover, including wellheads, tanks, leaseholds, etc. TDCs typically make up between 20 – 35% of drilling expenses, and they are also 100% tax deductible.&nbsp;</p>



<p>In the past, tax rules forced investors to take TDC deductions over a seven-year depreciation schedule. But thanks to a new 2018 law in effect until 2023, you can now deduct 100% of the TDCs in the first year. So instead of having to apply these tax savings over seven years, you can now bring forward 100% of your TDC deductions into the current tax year.</p>



<p>The end result for investors is that, through at least 2023, you can now deduct up to 100% of the upfront cost of drilling a well from your current year taxes. But that’s not all – as an individual investor, you can enjoy even greater tax benefits after drilling the well when the production comes online.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-depletion-allowance">DEPLETION ALLOWANCE</h3>



<p>The 1990 Tax Act allows energy producers under a certain volume limit to exempt 15% of their gross income from federal taxes. The incentive is designed to support independent energy producers and individual investors.</p>



<p>Here’s how it works…</p>



<p>The Depletion Allowance applies to small companies that produce no more than 50,000 barrels per day of oil. As an individual investor, you qualify for the Depletion Allowance if your share of production falls under a threshold of 1,000 barrels of oil per day or 6,000 cubic feet of gas per day.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-general-vs-limited-partner">Liability </h3>



<p>EnergyFunders offers the unique opportunity of investing as an active or passive participant in our Funds. As an active investor, you can deduct your investment from active income, including regular wages. If you invest as a limited partner, you can only deduct your investment against passive income (i.e. stock dividends or bond interest payments). </p>



<p>Importantly, active investors take on unlimited liability versus limited partners that have limited liability.  We encourage every individual to consider their own risk tolerance and tax situation in choosing which option makes the most sense for their personal situation. </p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"></h3>



<p></p>
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Understanding the Tax Breaks


<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.energyfunders.com/_next/image?url=%2F_next%2Fstatic%2Fimage%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fblogs%2Foil-and-gas-investing-benefits.cb591b3b7faebfeb333f4b8c86e04f47.jpeg&amp;w=1200&amp;q=75" alt=""/></figure>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-unique-benefits-of-oil-and-gas-investing">The Unique Benefits of Oil and Gas Investing</h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-high-return-potential">HIGH RETURN POTENTIAL</h3>



<p>This is the entire reason for investing in the first place, right?</p>



<p>Oil and gas investing offers a high return potential. It can also be riskier, which is why EnergyFunders offers you ways to diversify your investment into multiple well projects or investing in several projects at different stages — exploration, development and operation.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tax-breaks-for-investors">TAX BREAKS FOR INVESTORS</h3>



<p>The most obvious advantage of investing in oil and gas stems from the large tax breaks for investors Uncle Sam gives. You can deduct up to 80% of your investment within the first year. This gives you a sizable instant return on investment, even if you have a dry hole.</p>



<p>You can also write off the entire amount within five years. Plus, you will receive a 15% depletion allowance against oil and gas revenue every year.</p>



<p>Make sure you have a qualified and competent CPA or tax preparer who understands oil and gas investing laws to make sure you get every deduction possible. <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.energyfunders.com/posts/understanding-the-tax-breaks" target="_blank">Read more</a> about the tax breaks for investors.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-investment-life">INVESTMENT LIFE</h3>



<p>Oil and gas investing also offers long-term return potential. Some wells are in production for a decade or more, giving you passive income for years.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-faster-cash-flow">FASTER CASH FLOW</h3>



<p>A profitable oil or gas well can be similar to owning your own annuity that provides reliable, consistent cash flow. With most financial annuities, you have to pay premiums for several years before you can receive a payment. Compare this to a profitable oil and gas project, where you’re eligible to receive a payment in the month or quarter it hits the pay zone. You may only have to wait a few months to a year for that first payment, instead of five, 10 or 20 years.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-become-an-investor">Become an Investor</h3>



<p>Get the rewards of oil and gas investing.&nbsp;<a href="https://info.energyfunders.com/cs/c/?cta_guid=2ecc1016-759a-4f39-9ab1-8db71063b8f9&amp;signature=AAH58kFVGzdF7nz3fqo0b5PzcS4IXRKL7w&amp;placement_guid=83d94a82-6b62-44d3-a227-d26bdf4fd3e9&amp;click=21f6fc1a-68cd-4b06-9b16-7c7f49d694ac&amp;hsutk=9311881732b17bbeb2566d15d877f92c&amp;canon=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.energyfunders.com%2Finvest%2Finvest-oil-and-gas%2F&amp;portal_id=2935563&amp;redirect_url=APefjpGfFsnZttu2YQd6MF9fyZ2SMvB0ZS17-GWpF7m0x0T877wYYfFmwDyu7h6yFZ7r5149bGwkth5caTYw7AOcd-K8ya0o-qNVui3m_FkxZq-AysgqfKik2qsX8yaYXBZ8kxs_gDezdz0u6QxiDpK4cV0vNv_nsBOCxgCjSRxPMdruXx5B0_s055YYzbjajO3qyVKya9gIq_i_Wh3fQTS7yzPYCob4z2yCeIiAUXVkT1fvrN-pGZNuoMoa7tafFKnzj9si2nAbderS1fgu8SxKZ9uvUguzVQ&amp;__hstc=104210143.9311881732b17bbeb2566d15d877f92c.1600165727539.1604947026615.1604997713237.25&amp;__hssc=104210143.4.1604997713237&amp;__hsfp=2662356654">SIGN UP</a></p>
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